Counterfactual Multi-Agent Policy Gradients

Cooperative multi-agent systems can be naturally used to model many real world problems, such as network packet routing and the coordination of autonomous vehicles. There is a great need for new reinforcement learning methods that can efficiently learn decentralised policies for such systems. To this end, we propose a new multi-agent actor-critic method called counterfactual multi-agent (COMA) policy gradients. COMA uses a centralised critic to estimate the Q-function and decentralised actors to optimise the agents' policies. In addition, to address the challenges of multi-agent credit assignment, it uses a counterfactual baseline that marginalises out a single agent's action, while keeping the other agents' actions fixed. COMA also uses a critic representation that allows the counterfactual baseline to be computed efficiently in a single forward pass. We evaluate COMA in the testbed of StarCraft unit micromanagement, using a decentralised variant with significant partial observability. COMA significantly improves average performance over other multi-agent actor-critic methods in this setting, and the best performing agents are competitive with state-of-the-art centralised controllers that get access to the full state

Value Propagation Networks

We present Value Propagation (VProp), a set of parameter-efficient differentiable planning modules built on Value Iteration which can successfully be trained using reinforcement learning to solve unseen tasks, has the capability to generalize to larger map sizes, and can learn to navigate in dynamic environments. We show that the modules enable learning to plan when the environment also includes stochastic elements, providing a cost-efficient learning system to build low-level size-invariant planners for a variety of interactive navigation problems. We evaluate on static and dynamic configurations of MazeBase grid-worlds, with randomly generated environments of several different sizes, and on a StarCraft navigation scenario, with more complex dynamics, and pixels as input.Comment: Updated to match ICLR 2019 OpenReview's versio

Counterfactual Reasoning about Intent for Interactive Navigation in Dynamic Environments

Many modern robotics applications require robots to function autonomously in dynamic environments including other decision making agents, such as people or other robots. This calls for fast and scalable interactive motion planning. This requires models that take into consideration the other agent's intended actions in one's own planning. We present a real-time motion planning framework that brings together a few key components including intention inference by reasoning counterfactually about potential motion of the other agents as they work towards different goals. By using a light-weight motion model, we achieve efficient iterative planning for fluid motion when avoiding pedestrians, in parallel with goal inference for longer range movement prediction. This inference framework is coupled with a novel distributed visual tracking method that provides reliable and robust models for the current belief-state of the monitored environment. This combined approach represents a computationally efficient alternative to previously studied policy learning methods that often require significant offline training or calibration and do not yet scale to densely populated environments. We validate this framework with experiments involving multi-robot and human-robot navigation. We further validate the tracker component separately on much larger scale unconstrained pedestrian data sets

Simulation-Based Inference for Global Health Decisions

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of in-silico epidemiological modelling in predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases to inform health policy and decision makers about suitable prevention and containment strategies. Work in this setting involves solving challenging inference and control problems in individual-based models of ever increasing complexity. Here we discuss recent breakthroughs in machine learning, specifically in simulation-based inference, and explore its potential as a novel venue for model calibration to support the design and evaluation of public health interventions. To further stimulate research, we are developing software interfaces that turn two cornerstone COVID-19 and malaria epidemiology models COVID-sim, (https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/) and OpenMalaria (https://github.com/SwissTPH/openmalaria) into probabilistic programs, enabling efficient interpretable Bayesian inference within those simulators

Lessons from reinforcement learning for biological representations of space

Neuroscientists postulate 3D representations in the brain in a variety of different coordinate frames (e.g. 'head-centred', 'hand-centred' and 'world-based'). Recent advances in reinforcement learning demonstrate a quite different approach that may provide a more promising model for biological representations underlying spatial perception and navigation. In this paper, we focus on reinforcement learning methods that reward an agent for arriving at a target image without any attempt to build up a 3D 'map'. We test the ability of this type of representation to support geometrically consistent spatial tasks such as interpolating between learned locations using decoding of feature vectors. We introduce a hand-crafted representation that has, by design, a high degree of geometric consistency and demonstrate that, in this case, information about the persistence of features as the camera translates (e.g. distant features persist) can improve performance on the geometric tasks. These examples avoid Cartesian (in this case, 2D) representations of space. Non-Cartesian, learned representations provide an important stimulus in neuroscience to the search for alternatives to a 'cognitive map'